Market Update

Crypto One Liners: What’s Driving the Market in a Minute - November 23

Nov 22: Bitcoin has broken key moving averages amid heavy ETF outflows, whale distribution, and leveraged liquidations, while hawkish Fed signals and weakening investor positioning continue to pressure price. US equities have turned broadly risk-off, with tech leading the decline after Nvidia’s earnings triggered profit-taking, even as isolated retail names like Walmart and Gap showed relative strength. The Nasdaq sell-off has been driven by sharp declines in semiconductors and AI-linked stocks, as investors reassess earnings sustainability and capital spending risks.

Market Update

Wall Street Investors Wiped Out in Second-Largest Bitcoin Liquidation Since ETF Launch

Nov 21: Something unusual is happening beneath the surface of this sell-off. The flows, the wallets, and the timing are telling a very different story than the headlines on OG investors that many brushed off as healthy. What looks like another routine pullback may actually be a structural unwind of positioning built over the past year. Meanwhile, liquidity is thinning in precisely the zones that matter most, just as institutional flows begin to show stress. A few on-chain shifts that only occur during regime changes have now appeared again.

Market Update

Crypto Just Lost $1.3 Trillion. Is This the End of the 'Wall Street' Cycle?

Nov 21: While most investors are still focused on price charts, the real story is unfolding through ETF positioning, failed crypto IPOs, and a subtle shift in Wall Street incentives. Capital that once rushed into “institutional adoption” is now facing an uncomfortable unwind. December is approaching, historically a dangerous month when losses, psychology, and tax mechanics collide. We’ve been tracking a set of signals that rarely align outside of major regime shifts. If these signals are doing what we think they’re doing, the next few weeks could matter far more than most traders currently realize.

Market Update

Is Tom Lee’s Bitmine Team Really Collecting $157 Million a Year?

Nov 20: MicroStrategy investors have already absorbed roughly $20 billion in net asset value (NAV) compression (losses) since the company began buying Bitcoin, with most of that NAV accumulated at unfavorable prices in November/December 2024. Bitmine is now down more than $1,000 per ETH, implying about $3.7 billion in unrealized losses before even accounting for the hefty NAV premium public-market investors paid on top. Treasury companies will face a hard reality: attracting new retail investors becomes nearly impossible when existing shareholders are sitting on billions in losses.

Market Update

Everyone’s Talking About a Bitcoin Bear Market — Smart Traders See Something Else

Nov 19: Many traders have suddenly turned bearish, yet most are neither short nor neutral; they’ve stayed long and are now feeling the pain. The familiar “three years up, one year down” bear-market narrative is circulating again, but the real question is whether it’s time to trade against consensus or whether this is just another trap. The distinction between tactical and structural positioning matters, as risk–reward dynamics can shift quickly when positioning becomes crowded. Complacency is dangerous in this environment, as we demonstrated when we turned decisively bearish at the end of October (here).

Market Update

Bitcoin Enters a Liquidity Void — Right as Its Largest Buyer Begins Liquidating

Nov 18: We had no hesitation calling this correction (here), and we’ll be ready to step in when the time is right, but that moment isn’t today, and likely not tomorrow. While the risk of a deeper-than-expected bear market is high, we will continue to guide you with precise, data-driven analysis rather than recycled narratives. Several important catalysts lie ahead, and even if they don’t immediately move Bitcoin, they will eventually create volatility, which always brings opportunity for those who understand it.

Market Update

Is the Bitcoin Cycle Still a Reliable Bear-Market Signal?

Nov 17: The two most essential questions in Bitcoin today, whether the four-year cycle is still relevant and whether we are in a bear market, have effectively merged into one, and the answer carries enormous implications for every participant in the crypto industry. On October 16, 2025, we published our strategy report “What History Says about How This Bull Market Ends,” noting that while past Bitcoin bull markets often ended when regulatory pressure intensified, the SEC’s approval of Bitcoin ETFs removed that traditional overhang as a likely trigger. Instead, we identified four conditions that could mark a cycle peak, and three of those four can now be reasonably argued to have been present.

Market Update

10x Weekly Crypto Kickoff – Elevated Bitcoin Crash Risk?

Nov 17: We have maintained a bearish stance in our recent reports, and the market is now reacting to the very risks we highlighted. In the November 3  Kickoff report (“This week may set Bitcoin’s course into year-end”), we warned that sentiment was deteriorating, BTC ETF inflows had stalled, and both BTC and ETH futures were showing early signs of de-risking amid thin liquidity, conditions that leave markets highly exposed to downside pressure.

Trading Signals

Crypto Trends Chart Book: Understand What is Moving in the Market and Why

Nov 22: Every major coin is now in a clear downtrend, and our three rules (here) have helped protect capital by keeping allocations at a minimum. That remains the case today. Our altcoin model continues to favor Bitcoin over altcoins. Still, with Bitcoin trading below its 30-day moving average, our preferred stance throughout November has been no Bitcoin exposure and no altcoin exposure, a positioning that has effectively protected capital.

Trading Strategy

Crypto Stocks: Understand What is Moving in the Market and Why.

Nov 22: Bitcoin (BTC is below the 7-day moving average -> bearish, and is below the 30 day moving average -> bearish, with 1 week change of -16.7%) erasing $800 billion in market value. Hawkish Fed signals on interest rates, including reduced odds of a December cut, have intensified the sell-off, pushing BTC below key support levels and sparking $8.25 billion in liquidations over the past month. Bitcoin ETFs recorded nearly $2.3 billion in outflows over five days, reflecting institutional caution despite some sovereign funds like Abu Dhabi's tripling holdings. Long term holders, including a 2011-era whale, offloaded billions, short-term holders face $21.5 billion in unrealized losses.

Trading Strategy

Bitcoin Chart Book - Most Important Daily, Weekly, Monthly Charts

Nov 19: details inside