Hedging Bitcoin? Why Shorting Ethereum May Be the Smart Move. How Low Could ETH fall?

Why this report matters

Market narratives don’t die with headlines — they die in silence, when new capital stops believing. Ethereum’s “institutional treasury” story convinced many, but the bid behind it wasn’t what it seemed. Bitcoin, meanwhile, has spent months compressing into a pattern that historically resolves violently. Institutional options positioning is quietly choosing a side, even as retail looks the other way. Even for Bitcoin itself, the tactical picture has weakened after repeatedly losing the $110,000–$112,000 support zone. This is why, on October 22, we circulated a bear-market risk note highlighting on-chain deterioration.

Bitcoin (log chart, LHS) vs. 1-year moving average vs. outside month (RHS)

Main argument

Evaluating investment and trading opportunities is rarely a simple binary choice — it’s a spectrum of probabilities. But eventually every thesis meets reality, and decisions must be made. That’s why, at key inflection points where narratives can shift, we rely on clear stops or “lines in the sand.” This approach has served us well over the years.

One of the most powerful narratives of this summer was the emergence of the Ethereum “Digital Treasury” model. Bitmine’s strategy enabled institutional investors to accumulate ETH at par and later distribute it to retail buyers at a premium — a feedback loop that continued to drive prices higher. Delays in PIPE-related SEC disclosures introduced significant opacity. With no clear timeline or visibility on institutional commitments, investors couldn’t determine actual capital raised — or calculate NAV with confidence. The investment advisor not only receives a 1% annual management fee, but also holds a five-year option to purchase 5% of the company at $5.40 per share.

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