Why This $108,000 Bitcoin Level Could Decide the Next Bull Run

Why this report matters

Bitcoin is sitting on one of the most critical levels of the entire cycle, and the next two weeks could determine whether the bull market survives or breaks down. Legacy wallets are distributing, ETF flows have dried up, and volatility is starting to reprice sharply higher. At the same time, looming labor market data and BLS revisions could flip the Fed’s playbook, with rate-cut odds hanging in the balance. The question is whether this time will be different—or even more dangerous. Traders should pay close attention to the signals we’ve highlighted (here). Below, we break down the next critical level and explain why it matters.

Bitcoin (LHS) vs. Actual Money Flows into Bitcoin (RHS, $ billions)

Main argument

Since late July, we’ve taken a more conservative stance, anticipating the August consolidation that now appears to be extending into September. Bitcoin is sitting at a critical $108,500 level, with the market and broader crypto commentary now aligning with our earlier call: legacy wallets have been distributing BTC, and the decline in volatility has weighed on MicroStrategy’s NAV—limiting Michael Saylor’s ability to continue accumulating. Our short position in MSTR is up 16.5% (here), while our short position in Coinbase (here) has gained 19%.

These were clear roadblocks, visible in the flows we flagged weeks ago. The lack of new money entering Bitcoin was the decisive factor behind our cautious view on July 30. Over the past two weeks, our Bitcoin trend model has been firmly in a downtrend (see here), while our sentiment and reversal indicators are now flashing contrarian buy signals. With inflows well below the levels needed to sustain higher prices, the correction was inevitable. We stopped out our longs at $117,000—Bitcoin has since dropped by 7.7%.

Bitcoin is now sitting on major on-chain support and a key technical level—but with this being one of the most pivotal weeks of the year for crypto, the stakes could not be higher. With this week and next packed with critical data that will shape the Fed’s September 17 decision, being positioned correctly now will separate the pros from the amateurs. This is not a week for standing still or being complacent.

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