Why Bitcoin’s Biggest Holders Are Quietly Stepping Aside

Everyone has a price—even Bitcoin’s earliest believers.

In each of Bitcoin’s five bull markets, a new cast of promoters has taken the stage: from cypherpunks and libertarians to hedge fund titans and corporate CEOs.

Today, it’s Michael Saylor, Larry Fink, and even Donald Trump embracing Bitcoin as a strategic asset. Ironically, many of them were skeptics not long ago.

But the data tells a deeper story—and it’s not just about who’s buying anymore.

Our on-chain analysis shows that OG wallets—those belonging to early investors, miners, and exchanges—have been steadily distributing in 2025.

These are not panic sales. This is calculated, disciplined portfolio rotation into the hands of high-net-worth individuals, hedge funds, and corporate treasuries like MicroStrategy.

Meanwhile, whale exchange deposits remain low, and volatility is being suppressed. This is not the impulsive, retail-fueled melt-up we saw in 2017 or 2021.

It’s slow, strategic, and institutional. And as long as whales can absorb the supply, Bitcoin can keep rising.

But here’s the twist: Bitcoin’s historical pattern shows that the real risk isn’t when long-term holders start selling—it’s when their selling stops.

That’s when demand falters, absorption fails, and early adopters turn into forced holders once again. We saw it in March 2024. We saw it again in January 2025. The signal was clear both times—and we turned bearish accordingly.

Bitcoin is moving in $16,000 increments

Right now, long-term holder supply is still rising, which suggests this cycle isn’t over yet. We’ve called the breakout above $84,500, then the move to $95,000 and $106,000.

Our next target is $122,000—driven by the same macro-cycle and behavioral flow analysis that’s helped us call major turning points.

Bitcoin isn’t just about code or narratives. It’s a mirror of human conviction—and on-chain data tells you when belief starts to crack.

We're closely monitoring these developments and have shared our insights across the three reports we published this week. If you haven’t yet, it may be worth revisiting them—they offer valuable context for what’s unfolding now.