Bitcoin’s Rally Isn’t What It Seems - Should You Panic?

From my early days as an intern at Goldman Sachs, I have always been a power user of data, initially developing insights for the hedge fund desk. My career quickly accelerated at Morgan Stanley, where I led the Quant and Derivatives Strategies desk before transitioning to proprietary trading.

Over the years, I have held various trading and portfolio management roles, consistently leveraging a critical advantage: access to the industry's most sophisticated data. This insider’s view is so valuable that firms like Citadel pay hundreds of millions of dollars to “see” retail order flow from platforms like Robinhood. It’s a stark reminder of a fundamental truth in finance: if you’re not paying for a service, you are the product.

Bitcoin (LHS, log) vs. Number of New Bitcoin Addresses (RHS)

The beauty of crypto lies in the transparency of blockchain data—information that is often proprietary in traditional finance (TradFi) is openly accessible. However, accessing this data can be costly, and the true challenge lies in effectively sorting, analyzing, and interpreting it.

The real edge comes from understanding what these insights mean for the trajectory of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Many of the tools I have used to manage large TradFi portfolios have been successfully adapted for crypto markets, providing a significant informational advantage. This approach has consistently proven successful, transforming complex data into actionable insights. It's remarkable how much of the information surrounding crypto remains superficial, driven by flashy narratives and simplistic claims.

Instead of chasing hype, we rely on a combination of our proprietary indicators and our judgment, developed through analyzing hundreds of data points that our models meticulously process. The reality is that most people still misunderstand how the crypto game is truly played, obsessing over retail activity and clinging to the idea that “we are still early.” Our focus is different.

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