FOMO? The One Bitcoin Signal OGs Are Watching Right Now

Actionable Market Insights

Author

10x Research
May 21, 2025

Why This Report Matters

Bitcoin is hovering near all-time highs, and on-chain signals will flash subtle warnings. While price action remains strong, early holders are beginning to distribute their holdings to newer wallets. Retail participation is notably absent, replaced by steady demand from corporations and institutions. We've seen this pattern before—just before momentum reverses. Understanding who's buying and selling has helped us call past tops, and will again. This report reveals why the next move might be the most important one yet.

Bitcoin Whales are buying from the Mega & Super Whales (change in 2025)

Overview

On-chain data offers powerful insights into who is selling and who is buying, and tracking these flows has been instrumental in helping us identify key market tops, including in March 2024 and February 2025, when selling pressure from early Bitcoin holders began to overwhelm demand. We expect this data to once again signal when the current rally is nearing exhaustion and a deeper correction is likely to occur.

Just as importantly, our analysis of which investor segments were accumulating gave us confidence that the February–April pullback would be short-lived. Based on our cycle framework, we projected back in July 2023 that Bitcoin could peak at $125,000—a level now converging with our next price target of $122,000. This rally has unfolded in line with our forecasts, following our call for a breakout above $84,500 with an initial target of $95,000.

With the $106,000 level now reached, the path is open toward our next projected target. In anticipation of this move, we recommended rolling up Bitcoin call spreads from the $ 100,000 to $110,000 range to $ 110,000 to $120,000 last week, reflecting our expectation that Bitcoin would reach new all-time highs this week. However, we must remain vigilant—OG investors are likely to seek liquidity on the next price spike, and our on-chain data will be critical in assessing whether the market can absorb this anticipated supply.

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