Market Update

Early, Hawkish, and Often Wrong: Why Kevin Warsh’s Economic Worldview Matters for Markets and Bitcoin

Dec 13: White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett had appeared close to securing Donald Trump’s backing for the Fed chair nomination. Still, momentum faded after pushback from prominent Wall Street investors and a television interview in which Hassett struck a cautious, data-dependent tone rather than advocating aggressive rate cuts. That performance reportedly raised doubts within Trump’s circle, with some arguing Hassett would not be the kind of unquestioning Fed chair Trump expects.

Market Update

Crypto One Liners: What’s Driving the Market in a Minute - December 12

Dec 12: Altcoin leadership is emerging as Bitcoin's dominance weakens and liquidity returns, though the shift remains early and uneven. After nearly three months of Bitcoin-first allocation signals, our model now shows the first meaningful turn toward altcoin outperformance. Stablecoin inflows are improving conditions for rotation, but muted volumes and quiet funding confirm the move is spot-led rather than leverage-driven. Bitcoin has recovered above $92,000 after a leveraged flush and corporate accumulation helped stabilize sentiment.

Market Update

The Bitcoin Bear Market Isn’t Done, but the Yield Opportunity Is Just Beginning

Dec 11: Our short strangle recommended on November 24, has performed well, falling in value from $2,279 to just $550 as the probability of Bitcoin breaking out of its range has diminished, particularly now that the FOMC meeting has passed and the quieter holiday period begins, with already-muted retail activity helping to suppress implied volatility. On November 2, we also recommended selling the $390 Coinbase call when the stock traded at $344, based on our fair-value estimate of $318.

Market Update

When Prediction Markets Misprice Certainty, Traders Can Still Earn 60% Annualized. (Part 4 of 4)

Dec 11: This is the final installment in our four-part series, completing the framework we set out to build. The first parts introduced structure, pricing logic, 10 Strategies, 10 Golden Rules that Separate Arbitrage from Entertainment, and two live trades on Polymarket; this last section adds three more live trades (for a total of five ‘live’, rounding out a Bitcoin–macro positioning set. The goal is not entertainment, but disciplined probabilistic construction: identifying outcomes that are already decided by math yet still mispriced by markets. Together, these five ‘live’ trades demonstrate how prediction markets can function less like a sportsbook and more like an institutional yield engine.

Market Update

When Bitcoin Volatility Falls but Polymarket Doesn’t: Harvesting the $100K Touch Mispricing

Dec 10: Below, we outline why Bitcoin volatility may now be mispriced on Polymarket following the latest rally attempt. With tonight’s FOMC decision serving as the final major catalyst of the year, implied volatility has already begun to roll over. Once the event risk clears, the probability should normalize quickly. The divergence likely reflects retail traders overpaying for the upside narrative while institutional markets on Deribit and IBIT continue to price a far more measured path. As a result, an actionable spread has emerged in the last twelve hours, one that is unlikely to remain open once post-FOMC repricing accelerates.

Market Update

Prediction Markets: The 10 Strategies and 10 Golden Rules That Separate Arbitrage From Entertainment (Part 3 of 4)

Dec 10: Prediction markets are exploding into the mainstream, but most participants still treat them like entertainment, not like a system that quietly rewards the few who understand structural edge. While retail chases long-shot narratives, disciplined traders harvest probability and time-decay, capturing outcomes that are not just likely, but mathematically inevitable. This report shows how those edges form. Here, the winners aren’t the loudest traders with the boldest predictions, they’re the quiet ones who understand microstructure, flow imbalances, and volatility decay.

Market Update

The Polymarket Bitcoin Trade Paying 63% Annualized With Near-Certain Odds

Dec 9: As liquidity thins into year-end, near-riskless arbitrage has become harder to find. Yet we outline below a compelling setup on Polymarket that still pays 63% annualized if the event simply fails to materialize, an outcome now approaching mathematical certainty (although it is more of a fun trade). More importantly, Wednesday’s FOMC echoes two earlier playbooks with clear outcomes for Bitcoin. Is this really the moment to gamble, or the moment to recognize the odds are already priced in?

Market Update

When the Crowd Loses, the Market Wins: Why Prediction Markets Reward the Few, Not the Many (Part 2 of 4)

Dec 9: Prediction markets have entered a structural inflection point: liquidity is rising, regulatory clarity has arrived, and retail participation is accelerating just as professional desks position themselves to capture spread and information asymmetry. This Part 1 lays the groundwork, market architecture, liquidity composition, regulatory unlock, and the historical analogs that proved, repeatedly, that when new venues open, informed traders don’t chase narratives; they monetize them.

Market Update

Prediction Markets: The Next Structural Arbitrage Arena Bitcoin Traders Can’t Ignore? (Part 1 of 4)

Dec 8: For some, prediction markets represent a gamified extension of financial trading; for others, they sit uncomfortably in a regulatory grey zone between wagering and market making. Although operators consciously avoid being labeled as (sports) betting platforms, that category still drives the majority of volume, while niche markets, including Bitcoin and crypto outcomes, offer targeted opportunities.

Market Update

10x Weekly Crypto Kickoff – Are Bitcoin Options Desks Pricing in a Shock Event?

Dec 8: Bitcoin has barely moved, yet derivatives markets are suddenly bracing for a bigger swing. Volatility is being bought, not sold, and skew has quietly flipped back into downside insurance mode. Funding has faded, open interest is diverging, and ETF flows remain negative. The range appears stable on the surface, but positioning tells a very different story beneath the surface. Bulls will point to the Treasury General Account rebuild, the end of Quantitative Tightening, and looming rate cuts as a liquidity windfall for Bitcoin. Yet hypothetical macro tailwinds are irrelevant if the underlying message lacks conviction and the market structure fails to support a sustained move. Liquidity only matters when positioning, leverage, and flow dynamics align.