When Prediction Markets Misprice Certainty, Traders Can Still Earn 60% Annualized. (Part 4 of 4)

This is the final installment in our four-part series, completing the framework we set out to build. The first parts introduced structure, pricing logic, 10 Strategies, 10 Golden Rules that Separate Arbitrage from Entertainment, and two live trades on Polymarket; this last section adds three more live trades (for a total of five ‘live’, rounding out a Bitcoin–macro positioning set.

The goal is not entertainment, but disciplined probabilistic construction: identifying outcomes that are already decided by math yet still mispriced by markets. Together, these five ‘live’ trades demonstrate how prediction markets can function less like a sportsbook and more like an institutional yield engine.

Bitcoin vs. Gold Year-to-date - what is the trade here?

Part 1 (here) showed that prediction markets have reached a structural turning point: liquidity is scaling, regulatory clarity has finally arrived, and retail participation is accelerating, even as professional desks position themselves to harvest spread, flow imbalances, and information asymmetries. It established the architecture, the liquidity map, the regulatory unlock, and the historical analogs that demonstrate a recurring pattern: when new trading venues open, informed participants don’t chase narratives; they profit from those who do.

Part 2 (here) stripped away the myth of collective wisdom. Prediction markets are not guided by “the crowd,” but by a tiny, informed minority who price probability, hedge exposure, and extract premium from retail-driven longshots. Most users behave like sports bettors, trading narrative and novelty for discipline and expectancy, while a small cohort quietly profits from mispriced optimism and late-stage convergence dynamics.

Part 3 (here) distills this into ten executable trading frameworks, presented as a set of golden rules, and details ten prediction market strategies ranked from low to high risk.

Part 4 (below) turns theory into practice: real contracts, real order flow, and exactly how we would position across Polymarket using the strategies introduced in Part 3, and how to build a small yield-harvesting portfolio with some “equity kicker”. Two trades have already been presented earlier (here and here), forming the foundation of our analysis and portfolio construction for Prediction Markets.

Market Updates