Why this report matters

The on-chain metrics that have called every major Bitcoin bottom over the last four cycles do not alert you at the low; they alert you in advance, giving long-term investors and tactical allocators the framework to act with conviction rather than panic when prices are falling, and sentiment is at its worst.

This report identifies the three indicators that matter most, the specific price levels they are pointing to in this cycle, and, critically, the one signal that has marked the beginning of every new Bitcoin bull market. Understanding what to watch for and why is the difference between catching the turn and missing it entirely.

Bitcoin’s cycles have historically unfolded with striking symmetry—though each time, the key risk is that this pattern breaks. Our call on October 28, 2022, marked the bear market low with precision, and our July 6, 2023 projection of a $125,000 cycle peak was grounded in patterns that have since proven highly accurate.

However, while cycle frameworks help define the broader path, on-chain indicators have consistently identified high-conviction entry points—often when market consensus is at its most bearish. The question now is whether those once-in-a-cycle entry conditions have been reached.

Bitcoin (log) vs. the signal that marked the cycle low