Bitcoin's Cyclical Bottom: Real Floor or "Different This Time"?
On October 22, 2025, we suggested that Bitcoin was entering a bear market, a thesis we detailed during a mid-November CoinDesk interview broadcasted on December 2, 2025 (watch from minute 17:00), where we projected a decline toward $50,000. Now, with the latest inflation data softening, some traders are wondering if the recent retest of $60,000 marked the absolute cycle low. In our recent BBC interview, we noted that sticky inflation would likely remain a headwind before institutional investors commit serious capital back to the asset class. So, are we changing our view based on this month-on-month CPI improvement? Has the cycle truly bottomed?
We initially penciled in a summer low for this cycle. Savvy market participants understand that investing in Bitcoin is not about simple dollar-cost averaging, but about actively trading these macro cycles. The "OG" investors proved this last year by perfectly distributing billions of dollars in Bitcoin to inexperienced Wall Street newcomers. While one group focused strictly on the cycles, the other was blinded by the narrative of digital gold.
The charts below answer the most critical question in crypto today: have we printed the cycle low, and if not, when will it occur?
Bitcoin (LHS) - oversold, but is this really the time to load up?
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