Bitcoin Cycle Low Level Identified — Our Elliott Wave Model Reveals the Exact Time & Zone

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Why this report matters

Bitcoin has now declined by approximately $50,000 from the level at which we first warned that the market was transitioning into a bear phase (October 22, 2025, here) and that the “ice wall” was breaking (October 30, 2025, here). We also published a YouTube video outlining the key indicators we were monitoring, all of which clearly indicated the onset of a bear market (see here).

This is precisely where monitoring trends on our dashboard, available to Trading Signals subscribers, has proven invaluable, as it has provided clear, real-time confirmation of when and where Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies transitioned into sustained bearish downtrends.

While no framework is flawless, our process has successfully identified the cycle low, the subsequent top, and numerous key inflection points in between, underscoring the robustness and reliability of the signals we continue to monitor.

Historically, Bitcoin rarely declines in a straight line, and intermittent relief rallies are common. However, when belief systems shift and dominant narratives begin to unravel, corrections tend to be swift and disorderly. As we highlighted at the time, a key vulnerability was extreme overpositioning, which increases the risk that widely watched technical support levels fail to hold as forced liquidations accelerate. One of the clearest signals was the persistent discount at which Bitcoin traded on Coinbase, indicating sustained selling pressure from US institutional investors.

By our estimates, this institutional overexposure amounted to roughly $30 billion (here), a meaningful imbalance that materially amplified downside risk. In a detailed analysis sent to more asset-allocation-focused Trading Strategy subscribers, we also examined Bitcoin’s Elliott Wave structure across both the prior and most recent bull cycles. As one of our Trading Strategy subscribers, who exited near the cycle top after we turned bearish at $112,000–$113,000, recently noted: “Trading Strategy provides a level of confidence in decision-making that is essential for executing with conviction, exactly what hedge fund managers need.”

The last two Bitcoin bull markets exhibited remarkably clean technical formations not only during the advance but also throughout the subsequent decline. This framework provides a valuable roadmap for identifying where the final phase of the correction may unfold and where a durable cycle low is most likely to form.

See January 26 report which warned about the break of the $87,000 level

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