Will This $7 Trillion Debt Shock Make Bitcoin the Only Winner?

Actionable Market Insights

Author

10x Research
July 14, 2025

Why this report matters

Bitcoin just hit fresh all-time highs, but this rally isn’t driven by hype—it’s fueled by something far deeper. The narrative has shifted, and very few are seeing what’s really happening beneath the surface. While most focus on Fed cuts or ETF flows, a more powerful force is quietly reshaping the entire macro landscape (see Quiet Summer Explosion? report).

Massive deficit spending, a new $5 trillion debt ceiling hike, and an upcoming crypto policy report from Trump’s task force are converging fast. Two major catalysts—July 22 and the July 30 FOMC meeting—could redefine Bitcoin’s role in the financial system.

Main argument

While many had written off the possibility of a summer Bitcoin rally, we stayed focused, tracking the newsflow and analyzing the data in real time. What followed was a textbook breakout, fueled by July seasonality, a decisive shift from call selling to aggressive call buying, coupled with a wave of short liquidations.

On the surface, there are many reasons why Bitcoin is rallying—but only one truly matters. The narrative has completely shifted: no one is talking about blockchain use cases or Bitcoin’s technological promise anymore. Instead, Bitcoin has become a macro asset—a hedge against unchecked deficit spending. What if the $7 trillion shift in U.S. debt isn’t a warning—but Bitcoin’s biggest opportunity yet?

The Bitcoin trend model flipped bullish on July 2 (here)

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