98 Days of Bitcoin Outflows - Quiet Summer Explosion?

Actionable Market Insights

Author

10x Research
July 03, 2025

Why this report matters

Bitcoin is testing the top of its consolidation range, just as a perfect storm of macro catalysts begins to build. ETF flows remain strong, exchange balances are shrinking, and political pressure on the Fed is intensifying—yet prices have barely moved. Is the market coiling for a breakout, or is something holding it back?

Bitcoin breakout or continued consolidation, a lot is at stake…

With July's historically bullish seasonality in full swing and the next labor market data point just hours away, the setup couldn’t be more critical. Meanwhile, volatility remains subdued, offering rare opportunities for smart positioning. In this report, we unpack the signals that could define Bitcoin’s next major move.

Main argument

Our constructive outlook on Bitcoin heading into July is beginning to materialize (here), although we’re still in the early stages. The key narrative behind Bitcoin’s rebound since late April hasn’t just held—it’s gained fresh support. Following bullish setups in December, January, May, and June, Bitcoin is once again attempting to break above the critical $110,000 level.

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