What Is Bitcoin’s Next Major Support Level?

Our analysis draws on a large amount of data that we run every day, but a few golden rules form the backbone of our risk management process. Most newer Bitcoin investors still believe in buy-and-hold, but the data doesn't support it. In a difficult market where risk management matters most, a more active approach is what makes the difference.

We have spent most of our careers managing money inside hedge funds, and our research is built for that seat: the portfolio manager who must decide whether to be long or short Bitcoin and other crypto assets, and how much risk to take. We don’t get every call right. What we do have is a repeatable process. It rests on market structure, positioning, and data analysis, and it runs inside a risk management framework that tells us when to press a long and when to step back.

This report is not a “we told you so.” Its purpose is to show that process at work. Trust in a framework comes easily when you have used it at the desk every day for decades. It is harder to come by when you only see the output in a report. Subscribers can’t stand behind our desks, so we write frequently and explain the reasoning behind each call, so that over time the process becomes as familiar to them as it is to us.

Writing this often has a cost. Short-term and medium-term views can blur together, and the market itself shifts quickly. Our subscribers trade on different time frames, run different risk limits, and take different approaches, from long-only to long/short. Only you know your own book and your risk limits. We share our view, and you decide which parts of it are relevant to you.

That is why every report now ends with a conclusion and a summary, and why we built the Trading Signals dashboard, which shows the current trend for each leading crypto asset. We follow trends because our quant work keeps confirming it. Buy-and-hold no longer works in crypto. We combine macro analysis, market structure, and quant work; use technicals for risk management; and add on-chain analysis when relevant. The clearest signal for where this drawdown could bottom is set out below.

Short-term oversold - but where is Bitcoin’s next major support?