Three Bitcoin/Crypto Catalysts Left This Week—Then What?

Actionable Market Insights

Author

10x Research
July 28, 2025

Why this report matters

This Bitcoin bull market has been anything but smooth, driven by sudden catalysts such as Fed policy shifts, ETF approvals, and political momentum. But now, we’re approaching a moment where the biggest events on the calendar—corporate earnings, the White House digital asset report, and the FOMC meeting—are about to be behind us before everybody heads into the summer. With August and September historically weak for crypto, traders face a dilemma: chase the rally, or prepare for a pause?

Main argument

This fifth Bitcoin bull market (see Crypto Titans book) has been characterized by bursts of momentum and sudden pauses, rather than a steady, high Sharpe ratio climb. Each move has hinged on a clear catalyst: Fed rate expectations, Trump’s political traction, ETF breakthroughs, or regulatory interventions, such as the dismantling of crypto-friendly banks. That’s why staying laser-focused on macro triggers and reacting quickly to breakouts remains critical. In crypto, momentum is sparked by events, not driven by the calendar.

Bitcoin dropped to $115,000 heading into Friday’s option expiry—precisely the level we targeted a month ago when we sold the $115,000 strike July 26 call for a $1,560 premium (see report from June 24). At the time, Bitcoin was trading at $104,000, and a rally was widely dismissed by the market, making this a strong contrarian setup. The trade generated an 18% annualized yield in addition to Bitcoin’s price appreciation. We’ve already initiated a new trade ahead of the August month-end options expiry (see below).

Bitcoin: Retracement to $111,673 or a break above $120,000?

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