Bitcoin has stopped tracking US stocks, and most investors are blaming the wrong culprit. Inflation is only part of the story. Another force has weighed on Bitcoin for most of 2026, and the Fed’s next two meetings could strengthen it before it fades.
The dollar explains Bitcoin’s current weakness, but not when it will end. At some point, Bitcoin will stop following the dollar, and the full report explains when we expect that to happen.
We explain what we’re watching and when the setup could turn. One of our indicators, which has marked every major tradable low regardless of macro, is now close to triggering.
Bitcoin (LHS) vs. US dollar (RHS, inverse)
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