Bitcoin has made early holders rich. Since 2015, its price has risen from $238 to around $83,000, and that track record still shapes how most investors approach it. They buy, hold, and assume the next decade will look like the last.

We tested that assumption against every systematic strategy we run over both a eleven-year and a five-year window, and the results weren't what most investors would expect. The forces behind Bitcoin’s past returns have changed, and so has the way the market trades.

This matters for anyone who owns Bitcoin today, whether through ETFs, on a balance sheet, or in a trading book, because the approach that worked best in the past may not work from here.

In this report, we show which strategies still hold up, which have stopped working, and what that means for how investors should manage Bitcoin exposure from here.

25% a Year in Bitcoin since 2021, While Buy-and-Hold Made 8%