Circle shares are up +51% since our recent trade setup. Before the company's August 5 earnings report (see also our report), we anticipated a post-announcement pullback as the ideal entry point, a tactical view that played out. After dipping to $61 following earnings, the stock rebounded sharply and currently trades at $92, delivering a strong return in a short window. This movement demonstrates how evaluating market setups and timing entry points can yield valuable insights.

Our thesis on a Bitcoin cycle rebound in August has played out similarly well. On August 13, we outlined positioning across a targeted four-stock crypto basket, which has since gained +17%. Additionally, the Bitcoin $70,000 call options expiring August 28, which were trading at $300 when we shared our analysis on August 5, have risen to $9,000 heading into expiration.

These quick movements across Bitcoin, crypto stocks, and BTC derivatives highlight the speed of the recent rally. While many market participants missed the move entirely, others are now weighing whether to take profits or evaluating if Bitcoin has established a durable bottom. Below, we outline our current market perspective and how we are managing and adjusting our positions.

Bitcoin (LHS) vs. Stochastics (RHS) - overbought. What should traders do?