Markets have priced in a Fed hike, a Democratic sweep, and a routine September dip — but our models say at least one of those three assumptions is on shaky ground. We dig into the rate math the market may be underestimating, the Senate scenario nobody's pricing correctly, and why this September's playbook might look nothing like 2014, 2018, or 2022.
We explain which dates matter most for shifting the current 58% probability of a Fed rate hike this month, and how we're positioned. We also walk through how second-order effects are showing up in asset prices, and how stocks and Bitcoin could perform over the next few months. Importantly, this is not the time to be blindly bullish with max risk on. Rather, it's about having a strategy, knowing which events warrant stepping in, and at what level.
US 10-year yield breaking the upper resistance, measured move to 6.4%?
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