MicroStrategy’s Volatility Is Collapsing (And What It Means)

Actionable Market Insights

Author

10x Research
May 23, 2025

Why This Report Matters

Bitcoin is making new all-time highs, but one of its biggest proxies, MicroStrategy, isn’t keeping up. Under the surface, something is shifting: volatility is falling, momentum is fading, and key signals are quietly flashing caution. Retail traders chasing upside may not realize what’s already changed. We’ve seen this setup before, and it rarely ends as most expect. In a market where perception often moves faster than reality, knowing what matters now can mean the difference between profit and regret. The full report breaks down the signals, levels, and setups professionals are already watching.

Bitcoin’s and MicroStrategy’s 30-day realized volatility is collapsing

Main Argument

While at university, I spent two summers at the derivatives and structured products desks at Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs. These desks specialized in sourcing cheap volatility and reselling it at a premium. In practice, this meant buying volatility from hedge funds and packaging it into products sold to retail investors, allowing banks to capture riskless profits in the middle. How can retail investors possibly assess the fair value of volatility when most don’t even have access to an option pricing model on their computer?

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