One more shoutout: 10x Research has started publishing regular cross-asset reports every Friday, covering non-crypto topics—for those interested, we wanted to highlight this new addition.
Gold Is Breaking Its Most Important Rule — Here’s the Level That Matters Next
In last week’s What Matters report, we highlighted that markets were beginning to price in rate hikes as central banks leaned increasingly hawkish in response to upside inflation risks. Based on this, we outlined a downside scenario for the S&P 500 and identified the level the index could move toward. Since then, this view has been confirmed, with rate hike expectations firming and central bank rhetoric turning more hawkish, driving both equity weakness and the recent correction in gold.
More below…
In Case You Missed It: 10x What Matters
Institutional Cross-Asset Market Intelligence
10x What Matters is designed to give investors a clear cross-asset context in today’s increasingly interconnected markets. The publication is intentionally separate from Market Updates. While Market Updates focus on crypto market structure, flows, and near-term developments, 10x What Matters steps back to explain the broader macro forces shaping markets across assets. In short, Market Updates analyze what is happening inside crypto markets, while 10x What Matters explains the cross-asset dynamics that often drive those moves.
Crypto analysis remains our core focus, but from time to time, important opportunities emerge in other areas, such as AI stocks, gold, or oil, that are too significant to ignore. Rather than blending these themes into our crypto reports, 10x What Matters provides a dedicated framework for analyzing cross-asset opportunities.
Each report presents clear market views, bullish or bearish, framed from a CIO perspective, helping investors assess key risks and opportunities when making larger portfolio decisions. Every issue will also include a dedicated chart book, allowing readers to quickly absorb large amounts of information and identify the most important trends without wasting time. Often, just a few of these insights can make a meaningful difference.
This is investment research we produce for our own portfolio decisions, and several subscribers have asked us to share these insights more broadly. You can subscribe to the premium reports, join the teaser list, or follow us on Twitter to stay updated.
Read the First Report — No Paywall (Includes Chart Books)
The first report outlines how high inflation could rise and how far the S&P 500 could decline at a minimum. You can read the first report without a paywall, and future issues will be delivered every Friday.
Indeed, Gold is correcting, but something much bigger is happening beneath the surface. For decades, one rule defined gold’s behavior. That rule has now quietly broken. Most investors haven’t noticed yet, and are still positioned based on a framework that no longer works. At the same time, a series of structural shifts are unfolding that could redefine how gold is priced going forward.
The question is no longer whether this is a correction… but whether this is the setup for the next major move. The divergence between what models suggest and what price is doing is now approaching extremes rarely seen in the past. And if this gap closes, the move in gold may not be gradual, but sudden and nonlinear. In the full report, we break down what changed, why it matters, and the exact levels where positioning becomes asymmetric.
Gold (LHS) vs. Real Yields (RHS) - massive shift not recognized by the market
Disclaimer: This email and any attached research are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any assets. 10x Research does not provide personalized investment advice and is not registered as a broker-dealer or investment adviser. Views are the authors’ own and subject to change. Please consult a qualified professional before making financial decisions. ©10x Research.
