Some have raised concerns that quantum computing poses an existential threat to Bitcoin, and the strong correlation between Bitcoin and US software ETFs suggests both have been caught in the same AI-driven sentiment swings. But Bitcoin's latest leg lower is better explained by macro forces than AI-related swings.

Bitcoin (LHS) vs. US Software IGV ETF (RHS)

In addition, the market is digesting MicroStrategy's shift from accumulation to (expected) selective selling, a few coins here and there, not a forced liquidation event, with the latest $2 million selling a test run. That distinction matters. Managed selling is an overhang, not a crisis, and understanding the difference is part of understanding when this bear market ends.

MicroStrategy holds 843,706 BTC against combined debt and preferred stock obligations of approximately $22.2 billion. That implies an equity (worth) zero level of roughly $26,000 per Bitcoin, the price at which the BTC reserve no longer covers liabilities, and equity holders are wiped out. In a prolonged bear market, that threshold is not inconceivable, and institutional risk managers know exactly where it is.

Neither the quantum computing narrative nor MicroStrategy's sales are the real drivers of this Bitcoin market. Both are noise. Below, we explain what investors should be watching and what the signal looks like when you zoom out. This is still a bottom formation process, but a new bull market will eventually emerge, we explain the exact (single) data point matters.