Why this report matters

Ethereum has effectively been “dead money” for the past five years, trading around the $2,000 level it first reached during the last cycle. We have maintained a cautious, at times bearish, view since November, as on-chain activity has remained subdued, limiting both demand and meaningful value accrual for ETH holders.

Following a 57% decline from its August 2025 peak, however, Ethereum now appears relatively cheap, especially compared with Bitcoin, which is down roughly 42% over the same period. Despite significant mark-to-market losses, such as the roughly $8 billion drawdown in Ethereum treasury vehicles like Bitmine, accumulation has continued, while USDT issuance on Ethereum has recently outpaced issuance on Tron.

This has reignited the narrative that Ethereum could emerge as a key beneficiary of stablecoin growth and potentially serve as the financial backbone for a more on-chain, Wall Street-driven infrastructure. Against this backdrop, it is worth reassessing whether Ethereum is approaching a turning point or whether the structural headwinds that have defined its underperformance remain firmly in place.

Bitcoin (LHS) vs. Ethereum (RHS)