Another crypto company list, another disappointment. Nearly every recently listed crypto company has seen its market value collapse from first-day highs. From Amber, Bullish, BitGo, Circle, Figure, and Gemini to the latest listing, Securitize, early buyers have found themselves sitting on steep losses. On average, these eight crypto stocks have fallen 73% from their post-listing highs.

Investors need a strategy for navigating these listings, and quantitative tools help make that decision-making more disciplined. This is exactly what allowed us to flag Coinbase when it was undervalued, and when it was overvalued. In today's report, we look at where smart investors should start accumulating, what fair value looks like for the most important name in the industry, and, critically, how the Bitcoin cycle is likely to shape that path forward.

Like Bitcoin itself, listed crypto stocks are volatile and cyclical, and investors with a disciplined, quantitative process can learn to ride those waves. Like a World Cup striker who goes quiet for 80 minutes, crypto equity investors don't need to shine all the time, just when it counts, when the chance to score arrives.

Below, we explain when and for whom that moment is likely to come.

Drawdown by recently listed crypto companies (including Coinbase)