Coinbase Just Closed the Valuation Gap—Now What?

Why this report matters

Coinbase shares have been on a tear—outpacing even Bitcoin itself. But a key valuation signal we’ve been tracking just flipped, raising questions about how much upside is left. At the same time, Circle’s eye-watering IPO valuation could be distorting expectations for crypto equities more broadly.

Bitcoin (LHS) vs. Coinbase (RHS) - closing the valuation gap. What’s next?

The relationship between Coinbase and Bitcoin has historically offered strong tactical signals—and it may be doing so again. Our latest regression model reveals a shift that traders shouldn’t ignore. In this report, we break down what’s changed, why it matters now, and the levels you need to watch next.

Main argument

In our June 8 report, we highlighted that Coinbase shares were trading at an 18% discount relative to Bitcoin, based on a historically consistent regression relationship. Since then, that valuation gap has closed, and the stock is now trading at a 4% premium, according to our model. This shift suggests the relative undervaluation has been fully corrected. A short signal would only be triggered if Coinbase reached $350 per share, at which point the premium would exceed our model's upper threshold.

In our May 26 report, we noted that crypto exchange tokens can often be smart investments, as exchanges have a deep understanding of tokenomics and market dynamics. That view, played out, as the recommended WhiteBit token (WBT) has surged from $30 to $49, gaining +67% over the past month. However, beyond Hyperliquid, the altcoin landscape has mainly remained uninspiring. With a key technical signal now flashing, we believe it’s time for investors to reassess their HYPE exposure and proceed with caution.

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