We went into August expecting the month to confirm that Bitcoin's bear-market low was in (here). Our cycle indicator looked like a volleyball held underwater, coiled and ready to burst higher. The catalyst came on August 19, when news broke that US federal debt had crossed $40 trillion. Bitcoin jumped, and within a week it was trading at $80,000. It then slipped back to $76,000 as fears of a hawkish Fed grew. When Fed Chair Warsh signaled that policy would remain accommodative, Bitcoin surged to $86,000 in less than a week. This is typical: Bitcoin doesn't grind higher; it explodes when a catalyst ignites it. October has historically been rich in catalysts.

This report brings three independent signals together into a single roadmap: the minimum level this bull market should reach, where it is most likely to peak, roughly when, and which signal will tell us to turn cautious. For investors deciding how much risk to carry into Q4, the answer shapes both today's positioning and the exit plan for the next two years.

Bitcoin (LHS) vs. RSI (RHS) - from oversold to overbought?