WHY THIS REPORT MATTERS
This bear market is tracking similarly to 2022, but with differences in depth and duration worth understanding. In every prior cycle, Bitcoin hasn't just fallen back to fair value; it has pushed 20% below it. In every bear market, that level remains a realistic target, and it's one many traders have been vocal about in recent weeks. A move there would represent a meaningful further decline from current levels.
BUT: In this report, we explain whether Bitcoin's struggle at $75,000–$76,000 is a tactical ceiling in a larger ongoing bear market, or something more significant. That distinction matters enormously for positioning. The indicator that gave us the clearest signal in January 2023, when we were among the first to call the end of that bear market and turned bullish ahead of most, needs to be analyzed more deeply. The charts below may be the most important thing we publish this week. They'll tell you whether the crowd is early, late, or looking at the wrong thing entirely.
Bitcoin - resistance at $75,000/$76,000 - failure here?
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