Bitcoin: The Critical Level That Defines the Trade, and the Next Opportunity

Why this report matters

Bitcoin is sending mixed signals. Price has stayed below a key long-term support level. Beneath the surface, institutional capital is rotating selectively, favoring operational leverage over spot exposure, while political and regulatory timing risks are becoming increasingly relevant as the U.S. midterms approach. This is not a market for simple narratives or passive positioning.

The opportunity lies in understanding where risk is being absorbed, which assets are outperforming for structural reasons, and what levels truly matter if the setup breaks. We have been constructive on Bitcoin and select crypto equities since late December, which have delivered strong gains. That said, our view is conditional: there is a clear threshold at which the thesis breaks down, and disciplined risk management becomes essential. Below, we outline exactly where that line is and which assets we would be positioning into at current levels.

Bitcoin: Bullish or Bearish? And where are we wrong?

Market Updates