Asian Retail Traders Panic - Will This Bitcoin and Altcoin Rally Last?

Why this report matters

As Bitcoin ripped from $110K to $123K, it wasn’t just whales driving the move but a wave of panic buying in Asia’s late hours, leaving traders scrambling for answers. At the same time, Ethereum’s open interest swelled by $5 billion—an institutional stamp of approval or a sign of overreach? Funding rates across Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana have exploded into double digits, resurrecting memories of past blow-offs. Looming behind it all is a $1.5 billion altcoin unlock, poised to either spark fresh momentum or trigger a violent correction.

Main argument

Altcoins, especially Ethereum, are surging, and everyone’s asking the same questions: what’s driving the move, and how long can it last? Our tactical altcoin model turned bullish on July 10 (here). A day earlier, on July 9, our Trading Signals (here) identified trend reversals in both Ethereum and Ripple—moves that were followed by respective gains of 20% and 27%. Our Ethereum Technical Analysis chart book further reinforced this outlook, published the same day as part of our Trading Strategy series (here).

Bitcoin 1-week liquidations hit $1 billion, similar to mid-November 2024

Back in January, we advised hedging long Bitcoin positions with short altcoin trades, as the projected $57 billion in annual token unlocks signaled persistent selling pressure across the altcoin market. Our analysis also highlighted a structural shift in Bitcoin’s investor base, from retail to institutional buyers, including ETFs and corporations, while retail participation remained muted. But there are periods when altcoins pump, and we have pointed this out in our July 7 report (here): “When they [unlocks] exceed $1.5 billion [per week], we often see a brief altcoin rally the week prior, as market makers attempt to generate upward momentum. If this pattern holds, the upcoming $1.5 billion unlock could trigger a short-term rebound in altcoins”. 

Indeed, that’s why we anticipated a sharp rally—and it’s played out just as expected. The real question now is whether this surge has run its course or if there’s still more upside ahead.

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