A (Short-Term) Constructive Turn in Bitcoin?

Institutional Crypto Research Written by Experts

Author

Markus Thielen
April 13, 2025

👇1-12) Trump has continued to scale back his tariff threats, with each retreat reinforcing the perception that China’s assertive response caught him off guard. He’s lending credibility to critics who argue that the trade standoff may be more theatrical than strategic.

👇2-12) Despite the political noise, consumer confidence remains subdued, and recession risks persist—especially if inflation resurges and credit spreads widen. This suggests the market could be entering a prolonged corrective phase, during which the Federal Reserve will likely stay on hold.

Bitcoin downtrend in place since Trump inauguration - BTC moving higher

👇3-12) However, stronger-than-expected retail spending data—reflecting pre-tariff announcement behavior—due next week could temporarily boost sentiment. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s technical outlook has improved, with several indicators turning more constructive.

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