Main data points

The crypto market has slightly rebounded from oversold levels, as volumes remain low. The Crypto market cap stands at $2.21 trillion, 3.8% larger than the week before, with an average weekly volume of $76 billion, which is 35% lower than average. Weekly Bitcoin volume was $30.1 billion, -36% below average, while Ethereum volume was $12.8 billion, -45% below average. Ethereum network fees (0.11 Gwei) are in the 17th percentile, indicating low network usage.

Crypto Market Cap (LHS, $trn) vs. Trading Volume (RHS, $bn)

Most of the selling is through the spot market, not leveraged traders going short. The Bitcoin funding rate decreased by -2.7% this week to 3%, which is in the 22nd percentile of the last 12 months. Futures open interest increased by $400 million to $21.4 billion. The Ethereum funding rate rose by 14.6% this week to 8%, placing it in the 49th percentile over the last 12 months. Futures open interest increased by $200 million to $10.3 billion. Bitcoin's and Ethereum open interest are at the 33rd percentile.

Bitcoin Liquidations (LHS, $mln) vs. Trading Volume (RHS, $bn)

Declining Bitcoin and Ethereum dominance indicate declining institutional interest. Bitcoin dominance is 58.8%, an increase of 0.7%, and Ethereum dominance is 9.2%, down of 0%. Our model favors Bitcoin over altcoins, with Bitcoin expected to outperform. The model is 0.4% away from flipping Bitcoin dominance.

Stablecoin off-ramp continues with low stablecoin volumes. The Tether USDT market cap is $186.5 billion, -0.21% lower than a week ago, while volume was $64.9 billion, -33% lower than average. Circle's USDC market cap is $74.7 billion, -1.2% lower than a week ago, while volume was $10.8 billion, -32% lower than average. The stablecoin minting indicator is in the 2nd percentile, which is very negative. Last week, the Stablecoin market cap experienced a $-1.3 billion decrease, a negative signal, compared to previous minting, which is in the 3rd percentile. Over the last 30 days, a total of $ 5.2 billion has been off-ramped.

MicroStrategy has been the only notable buyer this year as futures leverage, ETFs, and stablecoin exposure are being unwound. Year-to-date, crypto markets have seen $ 3.3 billion in outflows, notably $1.1 billion inflows from Stablecoins, $4.1 billion inflows into Bitcoin (ETFs, Futures, MSTR), and $ 8.5 billion outflows through Ethereum.

Below, we walk through our tactical positioning, drawing on market structure data alongside an overview of flows, derivatives, options activity, and sentiment indicators.