There are several lenses through which to analyze Bitcoin and crypto markets. As in TradFi, fundamentals set the broader trend and valuation work tells us which multiples are realistic, but market structure provides a third, more tactical pillar that's equally essential. This is the weekly discipline we focus on in our kickoff report: a tactical read of market structure data on flows, positioning, and overall sentiment.

Together, these inputs help traders recognize the moments to bet big, and, just as importantly, the moments to stay out entirely. It's not unlike playing poker, except here we have access to nearly all the relevant data points, which means we should be making better risk-adjusted decisions than those relying purely on narrative and belief.

Still, there's one trade we'd be putting on right now, and it's not necessarily selling volatility into this week's $10.4 billion option expiry. Rather, it's a low-beta trade that has been through a correction but could be grinding its way back higher.

Bitcoin Option Expiry (notional, $bn)