The bond market is now pricing an 86% probability of a Fed rate hike this week, but the more important question for positioning is what comes next. What are the odds for the subsequent meetings, and what would a multi-hike sequence mean for stocks and for Bitcoin? We walk through how traders should structure positions for a scenario where the Fed doesn't stop at one.

That's not the only catalyst on deck. The Clarity Act could see real progress this week, but the key question is whether that progress is market-moving beyond an initial knee-jerk reaction, and if not, what the next hurdle looks like before it matters. Arguably more consequential than either of these, though, is geopolitical risk, and not just the oil-price angle, which remains a genuine factor in its own right, but a less-discussed AI risk building around the Trump-Xi meeting.

In short, there are a lot of cross-currents and a lot of ground to cover in this week’s kickoff report to navigate markets right now, but this is not the time for complacency. There are practical ways to protect the portfolio while keeping realistic upside exposure, because it will take more than an inflation print alone to derail risk assets.