Why the Next Big Market Move May Already Be in Motion

Why this report matters

Markets are awash in cash, corporate buybacks are shattering records, and volatility has quietly sunk to multi-year lows. Yet beneath the calm, a series of policy shifts and liquidity injections are rewiring the way capital moves through the system. A trillion-dollar fiscal surge is already underway, faster than almost anyone expected, and its effects are rippling into corners of the market most investors aren’t watching. Credit spreads, loan growth, and even the Fed’s balance sheet mechanics are flashing signals that rarely align this way. Bitcoin, small caps, and other risk assets are starting to respond, but the real trigger may still be ahead. In today’s report, we break down why these signals matter now—and how they could shape the next major move before most traders see it coming.

Bitcoin (LHS) vs. Credit spreads (RHS, inverse)

Main argument

In Q4 2018, fears that the Federal Reserve had overtightened after four rate hikes, and guidance for more, sent the S&P 500 tumbling nearly 20% and Bitcoin down 44%. The Fed Funds rate reached 2.25–2.50%, its highest since the financial crisis, while liquidity was drained by $50 billion a month through quantitative tightening.

Market Updates