What Are the Real Odds of a Bitcoin Rebound in March? Here’s Our Trade Plan

Why this report matters

Liquidity remains fragile, on-chain flows are cautious, and macro conviction is thin. At the same time, options positioning has distorted price action, amplifying downside into $60,000 while mechanically fueling sharp snapback rallies. Is this merely another bear market pause, or the statistical setup for a tactical rebound?

This is not a simple seasonality call, especially since seasonal patterns tend to break down during bear markets. Instead, we apply a Bayesian framework that combines historical streak exhaustion with seasonal tendencies to estimate the true probability of how Bitcoin is likely to perform in March.

This report separates structural risk from short-term probability and outlines how to position with defined risk rather than directional hope.

Bitcoin Seasonality - March is usually the second weakest month…

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