Update: Inside Our Live Prediction-Market Portfolio Targeting 100% Annual Returns

Why this report matters

In early December, we published a series of reports outlining methods for generating returns in prediction markets. In just three weeks, those strategies have delivered a 7.5% return, equivalent to over 120% annualized. We have since consolidated our work into a comprehensive 19-page report, accompanied by a detailed video walkthrough that explains the framework and trade construction using extensive charts and data.

Over the past two weeks, we have also identified several trading bots that have been employing the same statistical strategies for months, closely matching the approach outlined in our research and achieving consistent results. The combined performance of our five strategies, along with real-world data from live trading bots, provides a clear, practical blueprint for how traders can systematically approach prediction markets and profit from them.

Polymarket and Kalshi consistently trading $2 billion per week in volume

Four of the five trades we proposed are currently profitable, with the sole losing position being the high-risk, high-reward “moonshot” trade, one we explicitly cautioned against, but included given the asymmetric appeal of a potential 25x payoff. Notably, we exited that position with only a slight loss, while the bulk of the profits came from the high-probability arbitrage trades that constituted the core strategy.

Main arguments

The resulting profit-and-loss profile across all trades provides clear evidence for the proposition that prediction markets can be approached systematically and profitably when discipline and probabilities take precedence over speculation. As more retail-facing platforms rush to launch prediction markets, this approach has the potential to become a valuable, uncorrelated source of returns for traders who engage with the space intelligently rather than emotionally.

Below, we outline once again what traders should focus on when constructing portfolios capable of achieving 100%+ annual returns (as our current live-traded portfolio is generating), and we highlight a real-world example of a live trading bot executing a closely related strategy that anyone can monitor in real time. We will also continue to share new trading ideas and updates in future 10x Research Market Update reports as these opportunities evolve.

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