The Week That Will Shape Bitcoin’s Path Into Year-End

Why this report matters

The story is no longer about adoption euphoria; it’s about whether digital gold flows can outpace the steady unwind from the earliest believers. Many are only now waking up to the dominance of legacy OG sellers in this market, something we highlighted as early as June 26, 2025. At that time, we also noted that upside was likely capped and advised selling covered calls on Bitcoin to monetize volatility while the market digested supply.

Meanwhile, volatility continues to compress, raising an uncomfortable question: what happens to a high-beta asset once it behaves like a bond proxy? Under the surface, ETF demand has cooled, miner economics are shifting toward AI, and Ethereum’s buyer base looks far thinner than its price suggests. Markets can handle slow narratives, until they collide with fast flows. This week’s tape will tell us whether capital steps back in or whether this rotation is only just beginning.

Bitcoin - a big move will happen soon

Main argument

We have been ahead of the two dominant forces shaping Bitcoin over the past six months: the deflation of Bitcoin treasury-stock plays (here) and the steady selling by legacy mega-whale holders. While many view these developments as healthy maturation, they also mark a meaningful shift in market psychology, from early believers championing Bitcoin as a peer-to-peer monetary system to a new cohort of macro-driven allocators treating it primarily as digital gold. This matters and could be consequential for Bitcoin.

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