The One Chart That Could Predict Bitcoin’s Next 29% Move

Actionable Market Insights

Author

10x Research
June 10, 2025

In this two-part series, we explore who the real buyers are behind the current Bitcoin bull market and examine the key data points that could offer insight into where Bitcoin’s price is headed. In tomorrow’s follow-up report, we’ll take on the inherently uncertain task of projecting how long this bull market might last and what price range Bitcoin could potentially reach.

Why this report matters

Bitcoin is approaching new all-time highs, but this rally bears little resemblance to the ones that came before it. Crypto retail investors have pulled back, yet prices continue to climb. So who’s doing the buying, and why now? Behind the scenes, a powerful and underappreciated dynamic is quietly reshaping the entire market structure.

Main argument

In October 2022, our contrarian analysis accurately identified the bottom of the bear market. While predicting the top is far more difficult, our following report will outline the fundamental factors that could shape the peak of this cycle. One critical indicator we're already seeing is the rapid decline in Bitcoin held on exchanges—a trend we’ll explore in today’s report, along with its historical significance and what it might suggest for the current market.

Bitcoin (LHS) vs. % of Bitcoin held on exchanges (RHS, inverse)

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