The Institutional Reset: What Bitcoin’s Hidden Positioning Shift Reveals

Why this report matters

Despite Bitcoin’s 46% decline, Bitcoin ETFs have recorded only $8.5 billion in net outflows, representing a relatively modest reduction compared to total ETF assets. This reflects the structural nature of ETF ownership, which is dominated by market makers and arbitrage-focused hedge funds holding largely hedged positions, as well as long-term institutional investors with low turnover and longer investment horizons.

According to the latest 13F filings for Q4 2025, an estimated 55–75% of IBIT’s $61 billion in assets remains held by market makers and arbitrage-focused hedge funds whose positions are largely hedged or market neutral rather than expressing a directional view on Bitcoin. Market makers reduced exposure by approximately $1.6–2.4 billion during Q4 2025, as Bitcoin consolidated near $88,000, reflecting declining speculative demand and reduced arbitrage inventory requirements.

This report explains the institutional positioning, hedging dynamics, and arbitrage flows that have driven Bitcoin’s recent decline and continue to influence its price behavior during the current consolidation phase.

Bitcoin Open Interest, ex-CME (LHS, $ billion) vs. BTC Funding Rate (RHS)

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