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Revising Our Bitcoin 2025 Year-End Target: Data-Driven and Inflow-Based
Actionable Market Insights
10x Research
July 17, 2025
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Why this report matters
Bitcoin just rallied on one of the most catalyst-heavy weeks of the year, from a $5 trillion debt ceiling hike to panic buying by Mega Whales. But beneath the headlines, something more structural is unfolding. Capital inflows in 2025 are tracking just below record pace, and with Bitcoin’s market cap now massive, only real money moves the needle. Our regression model reveals a precise relationship between inflows and price, and this year’s data suggests a target that few are discussing.
Crypto Market Cap has reached a new cycle high at $3.82 trillion
Main argument
On December 16, 2024, we initially projected a 2025 year-end Bitcoin target of $160,000, which we later refined to a target range of $140,000 to $160,000 in our early 2025 outlook. Now, with greater clarity on actual capital inflows into the Bitcoin network, we can update that estimate using annualized data. This allows us to provide a more realistic and data-backed year-end price target, grounded in observable market dynamics.
Forecasting Bitcoin price targets is inherently challenging, given the potential for rapid, momentum-driven moves. That said, our track record includes several out-of-consensus calls that proved highly accurate. We called the bottom in October 2022 and projected a surge to $63,160 into the 2024 halving—Bitcoin traded at $63,491 on the halving day.
In January 2023, we predicted a year-end target of $45,000, which closely matched the final price of $43,613. Our January 2024 forecast of $70,000 for year-end was also on track—until Trump’s election changed the macro landscape. Now that Bitcoin is breaking into new all-time highs, traditional cycle models offer less guidance; what matters most is the scale and trajectory of real money inflows into the network. So where will Bitcoin finish this year?
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