Prediction Markets Aren’t Efficient — How We Generated 154% Annualized Returns in 2025

Why this report matters

Most traders think prediction markets are already “solved” by bots. That assumption is wrong and costly. Polymarket and Kalshi raised over $3 billion in Q4 2025, yet crypto markets on these platforms remain thin, inefficient, and mispriced. While Crypto Twitter circulates screenshots of a few standout accounts, almost no one explains how those returns are actually generated, or whether they can be replicated.

We didn’t use bots or insider access. We traded a repeatable, rules-based strategy that anyone can implement with discipline and active capital management. The real questions investors should ask are simple: Is the liquidity real, or just inflated? Which strategies actually work on Polymarket? Can this scale beyond small retail bets?

In our latest report, we break down how we generated 154% annualized returns in 2025 and outline our playbook for 2026, including what works, what doesn’t, and where the edge still exists.

👉 Read the full report if you want to understand where prediction markets are still inefficient.

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