No Buyers: Why Bitcoin’s Rally Has Stalled — And When It Will Resume

Why this report matters

Without a clear and durable macro catalyst, Bitcoin and the broader crypto market are likely to remain range-bound, even as long-term structural tailwinds continue to strengthen. The central question is unchanged: who is the marginal buyer at this stage of the cycle, and what will pull them back in? New BTC address growth remains tepid, underscoring that a shrinking cohort of high-conviction participants is driving price action. While these buyers have meaningful purchasing power, one key event is still holding them on the sidelines, and until that unlocks, momentum will struggle to re-accelerate.

Bitcoin (LHS, log) vs. Number of New BTC Addresses (RHS, 1 year SMA)

Main argument

In our Sunday/Monday weekly kickoff report, we noted that the Bitcoin rebound following the U.S. government reopening was likely to fade, with a retest of $100,000, and potentially a break below, a realistic scenario in the coming weeks (also here). This view stemmed from the understanding that the U.S. government reopening has limited direct relevance to Bitcoin. While it provides a modest risk-on boost, the broader overhangs on Bitcoin remain far more consequential.

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