MicroStrategy: Sailing Into the Abyss—or About to Break Out?

Why this report matters

Since May, we have held a bearish view on MicroStrategy, anticipating a broader summer consolidation with declining volatility. This scenario has largely played out, with the shares sliding from $400 to $330 (-17.5%). This $330 level was our initial downside target, as outlined in our August 18 report, with the potential for an extension toward $300.

Bitcoin (LHS) vs. MicroStrategy (RHS)

At the same time, the Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) theme has matured to a point where many companies are now trading close to their net asset value, making capital raising increasingly complex. Smaller players, in particular, lack the scale to access the full range of financial products, including traditional debt markets. The key question is whether these treasury companies can ever command a meaningful NAV premium again—and whether this marks the end of the theme. We believe this could be a critical inflection point, and we have several strategies in mind for trading it as we explain below.

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