Metaplanet Is Trading at $596,154 per Bitcoin—Time to Short?

Why this report matters:

Bitcoin is up $15,000 in weeks—but not for the reasons most think. A little-known Japanese stock trades as if Bitcoin were worth $596,154, more than five times its actual price. Meanwhile, Asian trading hours quietly take control of the market narrative, and a dangerous NAV distortion is forming beneath the surface. With volatility dropping and retail flows shifting, the signals we see now closely resemble past inflection points. Something unusual is happening across Japan’s bond market, currency flows, and crypto proxies—and it’s not in the headlines yet. You'll want to read this if you're looking for where the next big move starts.

Bitcoin vs. MicroStrategy vs. Metaplanet… which one could be overvalued?

Main argument:

Bitcoin is undeniably one of the most groundbreaking innovations of the 21st century, yet widespread misconceptions persist. One of the most fundamental principles, “not your keys, not your coins”, is rarely emphasized, and we’ve drifted far from Satoshi’s original vision of a truly peer-to-peer electronic cash system.

Today, billions in retail capital are funneled into vehicles that promise Bitcoin exposure, but often at a steep markup. In some cases, investors unknowingly pay a 447% premium, buying Bitcoin at $596,154 while the actual market price is just $109,000.

While some of our calls have been controversial, many have proven remarkably accurate. Notably, in December 2022, we flagged Grayscale’s GBTC trading at a 47% discount to NAV (Bitcoin was at $18,000) as one of our top trades for 2023 (including Solana at $13.70), at a time when sentiment was overwhelmingly bearish and recession fears were high.

On January 29, 2024, we wrote that “MicroStrategy might be a better bet than the Bitcoin ETFs,” highlighting that the stock was trading at a 7% discount to Bitcoin, effectively calling the bottom before its explosive NAV revaluation. We also identified MicroStrategy as a breakout candidate on October 7, 2024, when the stock traded at $177 (now $380).

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