Despite the Fed’s Pause, a Crucial Macro Signal Just Turned Bullish for Bitcoin

Why this report matters

As markets digest rising oil prices and resilient bond yields, mixed labor data, and cautious Fed signals, Bitcoin is quietly strengthening its macro case. Altcoin treasury holdings (ADA, DOT) are potentially pivoting to Bitcoin, and credit conditions are telling a story few are watching. Beneath the surface, subtle shifts in momentum could be laying the groundwork for a major move later this year. However, not all signals point upward, timing and positioning will be crucial.

We identified $106,000 as the key line in the sand, and over the past month, Bitcoin has consolidated around this level, trading within a tight ±4% range. The longer this range-bound behavior continues, the greater the likelihood of a breakout. Fed Chair Powell is expected to maintain a neutral stance at this week’s FOMC meeting, offering little immediate catalyst to shift the market tone.

The US labor market is not weaking fast enough for the Fed to turn dovish.

Main argument

Bitcoin is unlikely to be significantly impacted by the Israel-Iran conflict from now on, though its consolidation phase may persist due to other factors. On-chain metrics remain supportive, suggesting any corrections should be relatively shallow as long as prices stay above $100,437.

With little prospect of dovish support from Fed Chair Powell and a risk of rising 10-year U.S. bond yields, despite a softening labor market, macro conditions may keep Bitcoin range-bound in the short term as the summer seasonality kicks in. But beneath the surface, a key medium- to long-term macro signal has just turned bullish.

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