Bitcoin FOMO Trading Is Dead - Here’s How to Still Make Money

We now include a conclusion at the end of each report to help readers quickly grasp the key takeaways and core message.

Topics: Bitcoin option strategies, Bitcoin hedge fund strategies

👇1-15) Despite a +113% return in 2024, most of Bitcoin’s gains came during just two months (February +44% and November +37%). We were strongly bullish during those two months (here) but adopted a more cautious stance over the summer—tactically, this was the right call. Given Bitcoin’s historical tendency to perform better between October and March, and to consolidate between April and September, it makes sense to adopt a more conservative, seasonally aware approach during this part of the year.

Bitcoin returns per month - since January 2024

👇2-15) In 2024, a simple buy-and-hold strategy likely outperformed most actively traded approaches, supported by strong demand from newly launched Bitcoin ETFs, primarily driven by Wall Street’s marketing push. With $35 billion in inflows, ETF demand landed within our projected $20–40 billion range for the first year. Bitcoin’s strong performance was also fueled by U.S. government stimulus to boost asset prices, create a feel-good environment ahead of the Presidential election, and a dovish Fed stance amid falling inflation expectations. The three key drivers of last year’s rally—a dovish Fed, government stimulus, and strong ETF demand—have notably reversed.

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