Bitcoin Breaking $60,000 in Next Few Days? What Are the Real Odds?

Why this report matters

With Bitcoin option expiry dynamics, political uncertainty, and positioning all converging, the next few days could determine whether $60,000 holds or breaks. Markets are not pricing in a tail event. They are positioning for a live scenario.

Understanding the probability, flows, and incentive structure behind this setup is essential because when gamma turns negative and positioning becomes crowded, price moves can accelerate far faster than fundamentals alone would suggest.

In the report below, we revisit why the current political backdrop is driving consolidation across risk assets and highlight a recent material shift that could carry significant market implications. Positioning, policy uncertainty, and volatility dynamics suggest that patience and realism are warranted. Importantly, we assess whether $60,000 should be viewed as a tail risk or an increasingly plausible base case. In this environment, preparation, not prediction, is what matters most.

Bitcoin (vs. its 1-year moving average)

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