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A New Dovish Fed Chair and Falling Inflation Should Support Bitcoin. So, Why Isn’t It Rallying?

Actionable Market Insights

Author

10x Research
February 17, 2026

Why this report matters

Many traders view Bitcoin as a hedge against excessive money creation and, at times, as a long-duration asset whose value could rise as inflation declines and real rates fall. The latest inflation release delivered another downside surprise, with inflation continuing to trend towards the Fed’s target. Despite supportive macroeconomic conditions, Bitcoin has struggled to regain momentum and has fallen back below $70,000 after a brief rebound, leaving many traders puzzled.

Recognizing how inflation affects Bitcoin was instrumental in our call for a new Bitcoin bull market at the end of 2022, and it also helped us identify the growing headwinds after September 2025, when Bitcoin entered its current bear market. Understanding what is really going on will be critical in identifying both the end of the current bear market and the beginning of the next bull cycle. In today’s report, we explain what is driving this dynamic and what it means for Bitcoin’s outlook.

US CPI vs. ‘Real Time’ Inflation - a sharp decline looms?

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