$200,000 Bitcoin? The Math Says Otherwise

In our July 30 report, “Why the $140,000 Bitcoin Target Isn’t as Easy as It Sounds,” we estimated a 54% probability of Bitcoin reaching our $140,000 year-end target—but with a clear downward bias, as we anticipated a consolidation phase to take hold in the market. It’s time we revisit the data. While the average price target from reputable research analysts stands at $192,000, reaching anything close to $200,000 this year will be extremely difficult.

Why this report matters

Bitcoin has rallied this year, yet the numbers tell a very different story than the headlines suggest. Inflows are slowing, miners are under pressure, and seasonal patterns are resurfacing just as traders turn complacent. Consensus targets remain sky-high, but the gap between market expectations and what the data shows is widening. Beneath the surface, on-chain flows reveal a critical shift in behavior that could decide whether this cycle extends or falters. A handful of overlooked factors are quietly shaping Bitcoin’s trajectory into year-end—and they’re not the ones most investors are watching.

Bitcoin (LHS) vs. 30-day rolling inflows (RHS, $ billions) - headwinds

Main argument

We adopted a more cautious stance on Bitcoin heading into August, as highlighted in multiple research reports and in our late July CoinDesk TV interview, which remains highly relevant (here). Although we briefly engaged with the breakout attempt in mid-August, our Bitcoin trend model has since turned bearish (here).

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